1. Introduction: From drone risks to meaning wars
Earlier AVİM commentaries have underlined that incidents such as drone shoot‑downs and attacks on merchant vessels demonstrate how the Russia–Ukraine war exports escalation risks toward Türkiye’s maritime zones, while also confirming that the relative stability of the Black Sea has so far rested on the Montreux regime and Türkiye’s law‑based guardianship rather than on shifting NATO–Russia force balances.[1]
What is increasingly at stake today, however, is not only control over drones or tankers but also control over the meaning of the conflict, as Russian disinformation networks and parts of the European far right seek to reshape public perceptions through coordinated campaigns of narrative warfare. [2]
By questioning alliances, casting treaty‑based restraint as a loss of sovereignty, and reframing the war as a civilizational struggle, these actors aim to erode confidence in precisely those legal frameworks and mediating roles that have contained spillover into the Black Sea. The core claim of this commentary is that, even in this “war of meanings,” the concrete stabilizing factor remains Türkiye’s consistent application of international law in the Black Sea; what is being contested is whether domestic and external audiences continue to view this legal custodianship as a legitimate and desirable basis for order. [3]
[1] Teoman Ertuğrul Tulun, “GUARDIANSHIP UNDER PRESSURE: DRONE ESCALATION, RUSSIAN MILITARIZATION, AND TÜRKIYE’S LEGAL ORDER IN THE BLACK SEA,” AVİM Commentary no. 2026/1 (Ankara: Center for Eurasian Studies (AVİM), 05.012026), accessed January 6, 2026, https://avim.org.tr/en/Yorum/GUARDIANSHIP-UNDER-PRESSURE-DRONE-ESCALATION-RUSSIAN-MILITARIZATION-AND-TURKIYE-S-LEGAL-ORDER-IN-THE-BLACK-SEA
[2] “Russian Disinformation in Turkey with Karolina Wanda Olszowska and Karol Wasilewski,” Turkey Recap (newsletter and podcast), December 16, 2025, accessed January 5, 2026, https://www.turkeyrecap.com/p/russian-disinformation-in-turkey .
[3] Teoman Ertuğrul Tulun, “At the Crossroads: Türkiye and the Battle for Black Sea Order,” AVİM Analysis no. 2025/23 (Ankara: Center for Eurasian Studies (AVİM), 21.10.2025), accessed January 5, 2026, https://avim.org.tr/en/Analiz/AT-THE-CROSSROADS-TURKIYE-AND-THE-BATTLE-FOR-BLACK-SEA-ORDER ; Teoman Ertuğrul Tulun, “Black Sea Attacks on Merchant Vessels: Türkiye’s EEZ, the Montreux Regime, and the Risk of War Spillover,” AVİM Commentary no. 2025/53 (Ankara: Center for Eurasian Studies (AVİM), December 2, 2025), accessed January 5, 2026, https://www.avim.org.tr/en/Yorum/BLACK-SEA-ATTACKS-ON-MERCHANT-VESSELS-TURKIYE-S-EEZ-THE-MONTREUX-REGIME-AND-THE-RISK-OF-WAR-SPILLOVER .